Case-Shiller: Home Prices Grow at Fastest Rate Since June 2014

Home prices continued to rise in September according to Case-Shiller National and 20-City home price index reports. According to the National Home Price Index, national home prices rose 0.70 percent month for the three months ending in September. The National Index regained its pre-housing bubble peak and surpassed it by 5.90 percent as of September.

The 20-City Home Price Index rose 0.50 percent from August’s reading. Analysts forecast a growth rate of 0.40 percent month-to-month. The 20-City Home Price Index indicates a home price growth rate 0f 6.20 percent year-over-year. The 20-City Index remained 1.50 percent below its peak in 2006.

The 20-City Home Price Index showed 16 of 20 cities posted gains in home price growth. Seattle, Washington, which has consistently held the top spot for year-over-year home price growth, posted slower growth for September. Seattle held on to its lead for year-over-year home price growth with a reading of 12.90 percent. Las Vegas Nevada held second place in the 20-City Index with a year-over-year home price growth of 9.00 percent. San Diego, California held third place with a year-over-year reading of 8.20 percent appreciation in home prices.

CaseShiller Home Prices: Not the Whole Story

Analysts caution that while Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports are intended as a tool for real estate investors, they may not reflect all factors impacting U.S. housing markets. An analysis published in May by Trulia indicated that only 38 percent of U.S, homes have recovered their post-recession values. Some analysts say that methodology used for calculating the Case-Shiller home price index readings does not reflect individual or local factors impacting home prices.

In an unrelated report, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices for properties with mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were up 6.50 percent from the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017.

FHFA reported that the District of Columbia and all 50 states posted higher home price gains for the period between Q3 2016 and Q3 2017. The top three year-over-year home price gains were held by Washington, D.C at 11.60 percent; the state of Washington held second place with a gain of 11.50 percent and Hawaii and Arizona tied for third place with year-over-year home price gains of 10.00 percent.

FHFA reported home price growth in all 100 areas it tracks and said that the Seattle, Washington region held the highest year-over-year growth rate of 14.60 percent.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Near All-Time High in August

Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index rose to a year-over-year home price increase of 6.10 percent as compared to July’s reading of 5.90 percent. The 20-City Home Price Index rose to a year-over-year reading of 5.90 percent over July’s reading of 5.80 percent.

Home Prices Nearing Their Peak? 

Some cities that previously had high home price increases saw lower paces of growth. San Francisco, California, which reported double-digit home price growth rates in recent years, reported -0.10 percent growth rate month-to-month and a year-over-year home price growth rate of 6.10 percent. Home prices grew at a faster rate in nine cities as compared to year-over-year home price growth rates reported for July 2016 to July 2017.

David M. Blitzer, Operating Manager and Chairman of the S&P Index Committee said, “Price increases appear to be unstoppable, but rapid increases can’t continue forever. Measures of affordability are beginning to slide, indicating that the pool of buyers is shrinking.”

Factors pressuring home buyers include slim supplies of homes for sale, high competition for homes and affordability as demand increases and supplies of homes for sale decrease First-time and moderate-income buyers face additional challenges including the ability to meet mortgage qualification requirements and increasing amounts required for down payments.

Role of NonResident Foreign Buyers Minimal

Non-resident foreign buyers who buy U.S. homes on speculation and leave them vacant may contribute to the high demand for homes as the homes they buy may sit vacant and are removed from the supply of available homes. Such speculative buyers typically pay cash for homes which can sideline mortgage-dependent buyers.

The National Association of Realtors reports that approximately two percent of pre-owned homes are sold to non-resident foreign buyers; this suggests that the impact of such buyers on demand for homes is currently minimal. 

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Home Prices Reach Pre-Recession Level

According to the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for June, Seattle, Washington continued to lead home price growth for the tenth consecutive month with a June reading of 13.40 percent growth year-over-year. Portland Oregon held second place for home price growth in the 20-City Home Price Index in June but trailed Seattle by 5.20 percent with 8.20 percent year-over-year home price growth. Dallas Texas held third place with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 7.70 percent. The 20-City Home Price Index increased by 5.70 percent year-over-year and was unchanged from May’s reading.

Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index reported a reading of 5.80 percent home price growth in June as compared to May’s reading of 5.70 percent.

Wage Growth, Strong Economic Indicators Drive Demand for Homes

Case-Shiller’s month-to-month home price data also reflected continued growth. 14 cities reported higher home prices in June after seasonal adjustment. Home prices rose 0.40 percent month-to-month nationally; the 20-city index rose by 0.10 percent month-over-month after seasonal adjustment.

Shortages of homes for sale continue to drive up home prices as sales of pre-owned homes outpace new home sales. Builders haven’t kept up with demand due to ongoing labor and lot shortages and rising materials costs. There was an estimated 4.20 months’ supply of homes for sale in June; the average level is a six-month supply. Low mortgage rates continue to encourage first-time and current buyers to enter the market.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director, and CEO of S&P Dow Jones Indices Committee said that although home prices are rising steadily, wage growth and overall economic growth were driving demand for homes in June. Mr. Blitzer said that current economic trends indicated home price growth was not expected to reverse anytime soon.