What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 1, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 1, 2022Last week’s economic news included readings on home price growth, new and pending home sales, and inflation. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in May

Home prices rose at a slower pace in May according to the S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Year-over-year home prices rose by 19.70 percent in May as compared to April’s year-over-year reading of 20.60 percent in home price appreciation. Tampa, Florida led S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index with 36.10 percent year-over-year home price growth. Miami, Florida followed with 34.00 percent home price appreciation. Dallas, Texas reported a 30.80 percent growth rate in home prices.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported 1.40 percent growth in home prices month-to-month and 18.30 percent growth year-over-year for May. FHFA data covers purchase-only transactions associated with home loans owned or backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Analysts said that slower growth in home prices signaled a cooling market after years of rapidly rising home prices.

The Commerce Department reported the lowest number of new home sales since the pandemic. New homes sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 590,000 sales in June as compared to May’s reading of 642,000 sales. Rising mortgage rates and high home prices eroded affordability for first-time and moderate-income home buyers.

Mortgage Rates and Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 24 basis points to 5.30 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.58 percent and 17 basis points lower than for the previous week. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.29 percent and were two basis points lower on average. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Fewer first-time jobless claims were filed last week with 256,000 claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 261,000 initial claims filed. Analysts expected 249,000 first-time jobless claims to be filed last week.

The Federal Reserve moved to slow inflation by raising its target interest rate range from 1.50 percent to 1.75 percent to 2.25 to 2.50 percent. Interest rates are expected to rise for consumer loans, credit cards, and variable-rate education loans. The Commerce Department’s personal consumption price index rose by one percent in June, which was the fastest month-to-month growth rate in 40 years. Analysts expected inflation to increase by 0.90 percent.  

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending and job growth; weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 25, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 25, 2022Last week’s economic news included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on home prices, Commerce Department readings on building permits issued, and housing starts.  The National Association of Realtors® reported on sales of previously-owned homes; weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB Housing Market Index Posts Lowest Reading Since May 2020

The housing market is cooling off according to July’s NAHB Housing Market Index, which declined to an index reading of 55 as compared to June’s reading of 67 and the expected reading of 66. July’s reading was the second lowest posted since the start of the index and was the seventh consecutive monthly decline in home prices.

Component readings for the Housing Market Index were also lower. Homebuilder confidence in sales conditions over the next six months lost 11 points for an index reading of 50 points. Homebuilders surveyed were less certain about expected buyer traffic in new housing developments as July’s reading decreased by 11 points to 37.

Regional results were also lower as builder confidence in the Northeastern region slipped by five points to an index reading of 57. Home builder confidence in the Midwestern regions fell by six points to 49. The Southern region’s reading was 15 points lower in July with an index reading of 60; home builder confidence in current market conditions in the Western region declined from June’s reading of 64 to 48 in July. Coastal metro areas that enjoyed rapidly rising home values saw declines in home values as affordability and demand for high-priced homes shrank amid economic uncertainty.

June Sales of Previously-Owned Homes Fall as Mortgage Rates Rise

Sales of previously-owned homes fell in June with 5.12 million sales completed on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Analysts expected a reading of 5.36 million sales; 5.41 million sales of previously-owned homes were reported in May. Rapidly rising mortgage rates and inflation sidelined prospective home buyers concerned about higher closing costs and rising day-to-day living expenses.

Freddie Mac reported higher fixed mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.54 percent and three basis points higher. 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.75 percent and were eight basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged  4.31 percent and four basis points lower than in the previous week. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims rose to 251,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 244,000 new jobless claims filed and the expected reading of 240,000 first-time claims filed. 1.38 million ongoing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.33 million continuing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on new home sales inflation and consumer sentiment  Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 18, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 18, 2022Inflation dominated last week’s economic readings and predictions as it hit a year-over-year growth rate of  9.10 percent in July. Inflation reached its highest year-over-year growth rate since 1981. Gasoline prices eased somewhat, but not enough to provide relief against a backdrop of high housing and food prices. Low and moderate-income consumers were disproportionately impacted as rents rose beyond near-record inflation and home prices remained out of reach for many would-be home buyers.

Inflation Causing Hardship for Moderate-Income Consumers

Consumers faced with rapidly growing expenses turned to credit cards for purchasing food and household items; this trend suggests that as interest rates rise, more households could experience increasing financial stress as paying off consumer debt becomes more difficult.

The Consumer Price Index rose by 1.3 percent in June on a month-to-month basis; analysts expected a month-to-month reading of 1.1 percent inflationary growth based on May’s reading of 1.0 percent growth. The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.70 percent in June and exceeded analysts’ expected reading of 0.50 percent growth and May’s month-to-month reading of 0.60 percent growth.

Year-over-year inflation reached 9.10 percent in June and surpassed analysts’ expectations of 8.80 percent- year-over-year-inflationary growth and May’s year-over-year reading of 8.60 percent growth. Core inflation rose by 5.90 percent year-over-year in June and fell short of analysts’ forecasts of 5.7 percent year-over-year growth. May’s year-over-year reading for inflationary growth was 6.0 percent and could suggest that inflation has peaked.

Mortgage Rates Rise After Fed Raises Key Interest Rate Range

Although the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate range in an attempt to slow inflation, mortgage rates also rose last week. Freddie Mac reported that rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 21 basis points to 5.51 percent on average. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 22 basis points higher at 4.67 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was 16 basis points higher at 4.35 percent; discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims rose last week with 244,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 235,000 initial jobless claims filed. Fewer ongoing jobless claims were filed last week with 1.33 million continuing claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.37 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

Consumer concerns over inflation eased in July with a preliminary reading of 51.1 reported in the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer confidence index. Any reading over 50 indicates that most consumers surveyed were confident about current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on home prices, building permits issued, and housing starts. Data on sales of previously-owned homes will be released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.