Mortgage Rates

With the government shutdown heading into a possible resolution, there were still delays on important data such as employment report releases. This has been somewhat relieved with the release of other reports that have been delayed in the past within the current government shutdown.

This time we are looking at Consumer Sentiment reports by Univ. of Michigan, which has reported a record low in sentiment in the last 6 months amidst the government shutdown. This signifies growing consumer anxiety as inflation pressures grow and delays in programs like Food Benefits take effect. Next week, the CPI and PPI inflation reports are tentatively scheduled for release, and many are anticipating it to be within line. However it still remains to be seen if it will be released on time.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The mood among consumers darkened in November as the government shutdown dragged on, according to a new survey released Friday. The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index fell to 50.3 in a preliminary November reading, down from 53.6 in the prior month. That’s the lowest level since June 2022, which was the lowest level on record.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 5.41%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week, with the current rate at 6.22%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.04%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
The CPI and PPI inflation reports are scheduled to be released next week. 

With the ongoing government shutdown, other major releases have hit a snag, as there is still very limited information for when the shutdown may end. The largest and most impactful releases continuing to move forward are those from third-party sources still publishing data — such as the Consumer Sentiment reports — which show that consumers remain concerned about inflation but have recently grown more optimistic about the labor market.

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates again by another 25 basis points. However, Chairman Jerome Powell remains skeptical that another rate cut will occur anytime soon.

Consumer Sentiment
Consumers were more optimistic about the labor market outlook in October, according to a new survey from the Conference Board released Tuesday. The survey’s so-called labor-market differential — which measures the gap between the percentage of consumers who say jobs are “plentiful” and those who say jobs are “hard to get” — rose to 9.4 in October from 8.7 in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 5.41%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.17%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.01%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
U.S. employment data, if released next week, are likely to be the most significant reports to watch.

While the government shutdown remains ongoing, inflation data for both the CPI and PPI has been released, indicating that inflation came in below expectations.

It’s worth noting that under the new policy, more data will be simulated rather than collected from broader sources, there is still a significant degree of data collection. This was followed by the Consumer Sentiment report, which suggests that the economy may be gaining momentum again, as sentiment has risen and broken its recent downtrend.

Although many reports are still delayed due to the government shutdown, some essential releases have started to be prioritized. With the latest data now available, there is a lot of optimism that there will be further rate cuts upcoming.

Consumer Sentiment
The U.S. economy sped up in October during the ongoing government shutdown, new surveys show, but high tariffs were hurting exports, businesses said, casting a cloud over the upcoming year. S&P Global said its index of service companies, which employ most Americans, rose to a three-month high of 55.2 in October from 54.2 in the prior month. Any number above 50 signals expansion.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 6.19%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.97%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
Next week’s tentative releases include the FOMC rate decision and the PCE Index, though the PCE report has been delayed by the government shutdown.