Mortgage Rates

In an unexpected turn, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation came in cooler than expected for the month of January, falling to a five-year low.

The jobs report showed that unemployment numbers came in worse than expected, perhaps signaling further hesitation from the Federal Reserve, despite inflation data coming in favorably.

This is also in light of retail sales data showing that, when accounting for post-holiday trends, retail activity has hit a significant slump. This suggests that Americans’ buying habits have changed substantially from the prior year, offering further insight that price pressures are still present at current levels. There is still considerable speculation that the Federal Reserve will move forward with an additional rate cut later this year.

Consumer Price Index
Consumer prices rose less than expected in January, and the rate of inflation fell to a five-year low by one measure, offering an encouraging sign to Federal Reserve officials as they weigh whether to cut interest rates again. The consumer-price index increased a modest 0.2% in January, a tick below the Wall Street forecast.

Retail Sales
Retail sales were flat in December, the government said Tuesday in a report delayed by the federal shutdown last fall. The numbers are seasonally adjusted. Fourth-quarter sales more broadly were also on the softer side compared with the prior two quarters. Americans spent more money than they usually do in the spring and summer to avoid price increases tied to higher U.S. tariffs. It appears they scaled back purchases in the second half of the year to compensate.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02%, with the current rate at 6.09%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.13%, with current rates at 5.62%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.13%, with current rates at 5.64%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 227,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 232,000.

What’s Ahead
GDP Estimates and PCE Index Inflation Data is set to release next week as the largest data releases.

While Consumer Sentiment has inched up slightly, Consumer Credit tells a different story. Credit usage has continued to rise, suggesting increased financial strain on consumers amid ongoing economic pressures such as inflation. Although another rate cut is still expected, its likelihood remains uncertain under the current administration.

Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January 2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings.

Consumer Credit
In 2025, consumer credit increased 2.4 percent, with revolving and nonrevolving credit increasing 3.4 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. During the fourth quarter, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.0 percent, while in December it increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7 percent.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 5.50%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 6.11%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04%, with current rates at 5.75%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04%, with current rates at 5.77%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 231,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The prior week landed at 209,000.

What’s Ahead
GDP Estimates and PCE Index Inflation Data is set to release next week as the largest data releases.

While many were optimistic about an additional rate cut, the Federal Reserve has decided to maintain current interest rates pending further data. They have previously stated that at least one more rate cut would follow the last one, but their stance now appears to depend on the availability of sufficient supporting data.

Recent Core PPI reports have also been released, and the data conflicted with earlier CPI and non-core PPI reports. The reports showed that inflation for producers along major production pathways has increased more than expected. This is likely to result in a noticeable increase in wholesale prices across the board.

Additionally, despite the policy intentions behind the tariffs, the trade deficit has remained firmly elevated amid recent policy changes. It is unlikely that even more significant tariff adjustments will lead to a narrowing of the trade deficit. Consumer confidence has also declined for another consecutive week, despite the economy continuing to show signs of strength.

Core PPI
The cost of wholesale goods and services rose sharply at the end of last year, underscoring that the battle against inflation is far from over as President Donald Trump names his pick for chair of the Federal Reserve. Producer prices jumped 0.5% in December, an index published by the government showed. The report was delayed by the government shutdown last fall.

Trade Deficit
The trade deficit fell a few months ago to a 16-year low, but it was fool’s gold. The U.S. is still running a trade gap near historically high levels. In November, the deficit almost doubled to $56.8 billion from just $29.2 billion in October.

Consumer Confidence
The stock market keeps hitting record highs, unemployment is low and the economy is growing surprisingly fast, but Americans were in a foul mood as the new year got under way. A long-running survey of consumer confidence fell in January to a 12-year low, dipping below even the worst readings during the pandemic.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05%, with the current rate at 5.49%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 6.10%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with current rates at 5.79%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with current rates at 5.81%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 209,000 compared to the expected claims of 205,000. The prior week landed at 210,000.

What’s Ahead
Unemployment Data, Consumer Credit, and U.S. Hourly Wages are set to release next week, with an additional Consumer Sentiment report by the Univ. of Michigan.