Financial Reports

It was an uneventful week for the data reports, as the majority of the interest waits for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision heading into the following week. One of the most notable reports is for New Home Sales, which had managed to greatly exceed the projections for the end of the year moving into January. It is an early sign that there is a surge in response to the week-to-week rate cuts we have been observing over the last two weeks.

The second largest data reports come from the PCE Index and preliminary projections for the Q1 GDP statistics. It is expected that the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the current rate will hold true, but there is some optimism that a small rate cut may be a possibility.

Pending Home Sales

U.S. pending home sales shot up in December as falling mortgage rates brought buyers back into the market.

Pending home sales rose 8.3% in December from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Friday by the National Association of REALTORS®.

GDP (Prelim)

The U.S. grew at a robust 3.3% annual pace in the fourth quarter, showcasing the economy’s remarkable vigor despite high interest rates and still-elevated inflation. The Forecast of Growth was projected to be 2.0%.

Although growth slowed from the third-quarter’s surprising 4.9% clip, the back-to-back readings were the strongest since 2014, if the sharp recovery after the pandemic is set aside.

PCE Index

The rate of U.S. inflation — based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE gauge — rose a mild 0.2% in December and pointed to smaller price increases in 2024.

Inflation picked up a bit at year end after declining in November, but there’s little evidence of emerging trouble. The increase in prices in the 12 months ended in December was unchanged at 2.6%.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.20%, with the current rate at 5.96%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.09%, with the current rate at 6.69%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.05% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.20%
• 30-Yr VA  rates are seeing a 0.08% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.25%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 214,000 compared to the expected claims of 200,000. The prior week landed at 189,000.

What’s Ahead

All sights are set for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision coming next week. There are other notable reports alongside the rate decision including Non-farm Payroll statistics, Consumer Reports (Univ. Michigan), PMI numbers, and Shiller Price Home Index statistics, first reports of the year.

The following week of CPI and PPI reports are typically lighter, with this week showing the same trend. There are a number of interesting interim reports that are worth noting however, including the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book which indicates the labor market has been cooling across most of the country. Following up is the Consumer Sentiment Reports, which is an excellent indicator for how the average consumer feels about their buying power, reflecting on the current economic conditions. Slower inflation, cheaper gas and a healthy economy have boosted optimism. Lastly, retail sales reports showing activity in December.

Consumer Sentiment Report

The numbers: Consumer sentiment jumped in January to the highest level since the summer of 2021, reflecting fresh optimism about the economy as inflation slows and incomes rise.
The preliminary reading of the sentiment survey shot up to 78.8 from 69.7 in December, the University of Michigan said Friday. Two straight strong increases pushed the index to its highest level since July 2021.

Retail Sales

The numbers: Sales at retailers jumped 0.6% in December to cap off a fairly robust holiday-shopping season and underscore the resilience of a still-growing U.S. economy.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.4% increase.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.11% with the current rate at 5.76% 
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.06% with the current rate at 6.60%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates seeing a 0.15% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.15% 
• 30-Yr VA rates seeing a 0.16% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.17%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims declined to 187,000 compared to the expected claims of 208,000. The prior week’s count was 203,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week boasts a number of larger employment rates which come at a quarterly pace. There is also the very large Fed Rate Decision for the first quarter which strongly determines how most lending partners and markets as a whole will view things going forward. There is a lot of optimism for rate cuts this year.

With the release of the CPI and PPI we received a clearer picture of what’s ahead. With the inflation numbers for CPI (Consumer Price Index) arriving a bit warmer than expected, there was some speculation that it could cause some hesitation from the Federal Reserve on reducing rates for this year.

We also were able to see the Year-over-Year CPI inflation rates with those as well coming in at slightly higher than expected. The projected outlook for the first quarter is likely that the Federal Reserve will hold its position and continue with maintaining interest rates as they have.

Although lending rates have drastically come down, much of it will depend on where the Federal Reserve moves this quarter or the next.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices rose somewhat faster at the end of 2023 and interrupted a slowdown in inflation, but the recent evidence still points to a further deceleration in the months ahead. The consumer price index rose 0.3% in December to mark the biggest gain in three months.

The rate of inflation over the past year also moved up to 3.4% from 3.1% in the prior month.

Producer Price Index

U.S. wholesale prices fell in December for the third month in a row, pointing to decelerating inflation in the months ahead.

The wholesale report might keep those hopes alive, especially since a weak PPI often portends a mild reading in the PCE index. That’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.02% with the current rate at 5.87%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase by 0.04% with the current rate at 6.66%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a -0.16% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.00%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a -0.15% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.01%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 202,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week was 202,000.

What’s Ahead

After the FOMC minutes for this week, next week should be a light release week with one major report being the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index which will show the inflation rates over December.