What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 14, 2021

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on job openings, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Job Openings Increase as Employers Struggle to Fill Positions

Job openings rose in April according to the Labor Department, but workers were quitting jobs in record numbers. 9.30 million openings were reported as compared to expectations of 8.20 million job openings and 8.30 million job openings reported in March. Increasing job openings indicate a stronger post-pandemic economy as businesses and service providers return to full capacity. 

Employers faced multiple obstacles to filling job openings including early retirements taken during the pandemic, difficulty in finding childcare options, and continued fear of covid-19. Generous covid-19 benefits and jobless benefits delayed workers’ return to their jobs. Job openings in restaurants and hotels rose by 349,000 openings in April. About one-third of all job openings were unfilled in April. 

In other news, the Consumer Price Index, which tracks inflation, rose by 0.60 percent in May as compared to April’s reading of 0.80 percent growth. Analysts expected a reading of 0.50 percent for May. May’s reading was the fourth consecutive monthly increase in inflation since the pandemic. Higher used-car prices accounted for approximately a third of May’s inflation growth. 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 14, 2021The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.70 percent in May and was 3.80 percent higher year-over-year for a 29-year high.

Mortgage Rates and Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell three basis points to 2.96 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.23 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.55 percent and were nine basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. 

Initial jobless claims fell last week with 376,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 370,000 new claims and the previous week’s reading of 385,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also fell with 3.50 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 3.76 million continuing claims filed.

The University of Michigan released initial results for its June Consumer Sentiment Index. June’s index reading was 86.4 as compared to the expected reading of 84.4 and May’s index reading of 82.9. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic readings include the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index along with Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will release its usual post-meeting statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a press conference. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 7, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 7, 2021Last week’s economic reporting included readings on construction spending and public and private-sector employment data. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Census Bureau Reports Construction Sending Up by 9.8 Percent Year-Over-Year

Construction spending rose by nearly 10 percent year-over-year in April. Overall construction spending rose by $1.542 billion on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Construction spending rose by 0.20 percent in April, which fell short of the expected 0.50 percent reading, and was lower than the March reading of 1.0 percent growth in construction spending.

Residential construction spending increased by one percent in April as compared to the March reading of 2.60 percent. Spending on single-family construction rose by 1.30 percent in April as compared to the March reading of 2.20 percent. Rapidly rising construction costs were fueled by higher lumber costs, but builders said that increasing costs for steel, copper, and plastic also drove higher spending. Builders expect supply chain delays and rising prices to continue impacting all types of construction projects.

Mortgage Rates Inch Up, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week, but average rates remained below three percent. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by four basis points to 2.99 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged  2.27 percent and did not change from the previous week’s reading.  The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was five basis points higher at 2.64 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims were lower last week with 385,000 new claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 405,000 initial claims filed. Continuing claims rose to 3.77 million claims as compared to the previous week’s reading of 3.60 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

Jobs Increase as Unemployment Rate Falls

The government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 559,000 public and private-sector jobs added in May; ADP reported 978,000 private-sector jobs added in May as compared to April’s reading of 654,000  private-sector jobs added. The national unemployment rate fell to 5.80 percent in May as compared to April’s reading of 6.10 percent and an expected reading of 5.90 percent. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Case Shiller: Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace Since 2005

Case Shiller: Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace Since 2005March readings for S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices rose to their highest level since 2005 in March. National home prices rose by 13.20 percent year-over-year as compared to February’s reading of 12.00 percent growth. The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index reported average year-over-year home price gains of 13.30 percent in March. Phoenix, Arizona continued to lead the 20-City Index with a year-over-year home price growth of 20 percent. San Diego, California followed with home price growth of 19.10 percent; Seattle, Washington reported year-over-year home price growth of 18.30 percent.

How the Covid Pandemic Impacted  Home Prices

Real estate pros said that the Covid epidemic continued to impact housing markets as homeowners were more willing to list their homes as Covid cases decreased. Demand for single-family homes increased as homebuyers shopped for larger homes in less-congested metro areas. The pandemic opened more opportunities for working from home, which increased buyer interest in larger homes with amenities including home offices.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, home prices for single-family homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 12.60 percent from the first quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2021.

As Covid cases fall more Americans will either return to their workplaces or re-evaluate their employment and housing situations. Demand for homes will exceed the supply of available homes for the foreseeable future, but the current high demand for homes may soften as families return to work and school and covid-related fears ease.

Home Price Growth May Slow, but Prices Unlikely to Drop

Rapid home price growth is likely to slow as more home sellers and buyers enter the market in the aftermath of the pandemic. Analysts don’t see major dips in home prices as demand continues to exceed supplies of new and previously-owned homes. Homebuilders face ongoing obstacles including labor shortages and rapidly rising materials prices that impact their ability to provide enough homes to meet demand.

Affordable homes are in short supply as pre-owned homes are often subject to bidding wars and cash sales due to buyer competition for fewer available homes. First-time and moderate-income buyers are joined on the sidelines by buyers who depend on mortgages to buy homes; they typically can’t compete with cash sales. As real estate markets return to pre-pandemic conditions, home prices may gradually plateau, but there isn’t much relief in sight for homebuyers needing to finance their home purchases.