03
Jan
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 3, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 3, 2022

Last week’s economic reporting included readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and the National Association of Realtors® released its monthly report on pending home sales. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller Reports Show Slower Gains in Home Prices

October home price readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed slower home price growth in October than for September. Nationally, October home prices rose 19.10 percent year-over-year as compared to 19.70 percent year-over-year home price growth in September. October’s reading was the fourth highest since the inception of the National Home Price Index 34 years ago.

Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reported 18.40 percent home price growth year-over-year, as compared to September’s reading of 19.10 percent year-over-year home price growth in September. Home prices for cities included in the 20-City Home Price Index rose by 0.80 percent between September and October. Phoenix, Arizona held on to first place in the 20-City Index with year-over-year home price growth of 32.30 percent; Tampa, Florida followed with year-over-year home price growth of 28.10 percent. Miami, Florida reported year-over-year home prices rose by 25.70 percent in October.

All 20 cities posted double-digit year-over-year gains in home prices. The two cities tied for the lowest year-over-year home price growth rate of 11.50 percent were Chicago, Illinois, and Minneapolis, Minnesota. Analysts said that while home price growth is slowing, prices will continue to rise in 2022.

In related news, pending home sales fell by 2.20 percent in November and were 2.70 percent lower year-over-year. The Midwest posted the largest year-over-year decline in pending home sales with a reading of -6.30 percent.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by six basis points to an average of 3.11 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by three basis points to an average rate of 2.33 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.41 percent and were four basis points higher.

Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.50 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell last week to 198,000 first-time claims filed; analysts expected 205,000 new claims filed based on the previous week’s reading of 206,000 initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also fell with1.72 million claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.86 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending and labor sector readings on jobs growth and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

27
Dec
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 27, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 27, 2021Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes along with weekly data on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Home Sales Increase in November

Sales of new and previously-owned homes rose in November. The Commerce Department reported sales of new homes rose to 744,000 sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. October sales of new homes were revised to a year-over-year reading of 662,000 new homes sold, which was the lowest reading since the worst stage of the pandemic in April 2020.  Analysts expected a year-over-year reading of 766,000 new homes sold for November. The median price of new homes sold in October reached a record high of $416,900.The number of homes for sale fell by 8.50 percent between October and November and represented a 6.50 month supply of new homes for sale.

Sales of previously-owned homes also rose in November with 6.46 million sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. November’s reading fell short of the expected reading of 6.50 million sales of previously-owned homes but surpassed October’s reading of 6.34 million sales.

Rising numbers of mortgage applications indicated that demand for homes remains high, but mortgage rates are expected to rise in 2022. Given rising home prices, the additional challenge of higher mortgage rates will negatively impact affordability for some prospective home buyers.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Jobless Claims Data Mixed

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by seven basis points to 3.05 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.30 percent and were four basis points lower than for the previous week. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.37 percent and eight basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims held steady at 205,000 new claims filed last week. Analysts expected a reading of 206,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.86 million ongoing claims from the previous week’s reading of 1.87 million continuing jobless claims filed.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to an index reading of 70.6 and exceeded the expected reading of 70.4, which matched November’s reading.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and data on pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

21
Dec
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 21, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 21, 2021Last week’s economic reports included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets and the monthly post-meeting statement from Federal Reserve policymakers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also gave a press conference. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

Builder Confidence in Housing Markets Rises by One Point in December

Homebuilder confidence in current national housing market conditions rose one point to an index reading of 84 in December and met analysts’ expectations. December’s reading was the highest since February. Component readings for the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index were lower in December. Builder confidence in current markets dropped to 90 from 92; builder confidence in housing market conditions in the next six months dropped by one point to 84 and builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments fell three points to an index reading of 70.

Regional readings for builder confidence were mixed. The Northeast reported a 10 point gain in confidence from 69 to 79; the Midwestern region reported builder confidence fell by one point to 74. The South reported a two-point gain to 89 and the West posted a one-point decline in builder confidence in current housing market conditions to an index reading of 87.

Builder confidence was boosted by high demand for homes coupled with low inventories of available homes. Home prices rose rapidly in 2021, but predictions of higher mortgage rates and affordability concerns could slow the pace of buyer demand and builder confidence in 2022.

Federal Reserve Policymakers Hold Benchmark Rate Range Steady

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve issued its post-meeting statement and said it would hold its target interest rate range at 0.00 to 0.25 percent. The Committee committed to using its “full range of tools” to support the U.S. economy and promote the Fed’s dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability. The FOMC statement indicated that economic indicators were stronger, job gains were solid and unemployment has fallen significantly.

The pandemic continues to fuel supply and demand disruptions and inflation. The Committee cautioned that emerging variants of the coronavirus could cause increased risk to the economy and it would make necessary adjustments to economic policy based on changing economic and public health conditions.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a press conference after the FOMC meeting and said that inflation was expected to exceed the Fed’s target growth rate of two percent weel into next year. While wages have risen, Mr. Powell said that wage growth was not a major contributor to inflation.  Job gains averaged 378,000 jobs per month and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent in November. Chair Powell said that labor force participation was negatively impacted by an aging workforce, retirements, and factors related to the pandemic including caregiving and concerns about emerging variants of the virus.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Show Mixed Readings

Freddie Mac reported mixed movement for average mortgage rates as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose two basis points to 3.12 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points on average to 2.34 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.45 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

First-time jobless claims rose by 206,000 initial claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 188,000 initial jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.85 million claims from the prior week’s reading of two million ongoing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation, and consumer sentiment.