What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 13, 2020

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 13, 2020Last week’s scheduled economic news included readings on consumer credit, job openings, jobless claims, and mortgage rates.

Consumer Borrowing Declined at Slower Pace in May

According to Federal Reserve data, consumer borrowing fell at a slower annual pace of -5.30 percent in May as compared to April’s reading of -20 percent. Non-revolving consumer credit, which includes vehicle and student loans, increased by 2.30 percent in May. The Federal Reserve does not report on real estate loans.

Federal assistance programs including the first round of stimulus checks, additional unemployment payments and support for businesses contributed to better readings for the economy in May, but last week’s rising coronavirus cases may cause all or part of economic gains to be lost as local governments reverse decisions to reopen businesses and local government services.

Job Openings Rise  in May as Weekly Jobless Claims Fall

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 5.40 million job openings in May as compared to April’s 5.00 million job openings. Rising job openings coincided with reopening business and government services as state and local authorities eased stay-at-home requirements and began easing restrictions on economic activity.

Weekly jobless claims were also lower than for the preceding week. 1.31 million initial jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.41 million first-time claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims fell to 18.10 million claims from the prior week’s reading of 18.80 million continuing jobless claims. Jobless claims remained much higher than pre-pandemic readings.

Mortgage Rates Drop to Record Lows

Freddie Mac reported the lowest recorded average mortgage rates as rates for fixed-rate mortgages dropped by four basis points to 3.03 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and fell by five basis points to 2.51 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose two basis points to 3.02 percent; discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

The U.S. Senate is expected to work on its version of the next Coronavirus relief package next week; it should be completed by the end of July or in early August.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes reports on housing markets, housing starts, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 6, 2020

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 6, 2020Last week’s scheduled economic reports included readings on pending home sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, and labor sector reports on private and public-sector job growth. Data on construction spending was also released. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Pending Home Sales Jump in May

Sales of homes for which purchase contracts were signed rose by 44.30 percent in May and was the highest month-to-month increase recorded since the report’s inception in 2001..Pending home sales are sales with signed purchase contracts but aren’t closed.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors® said,  “This has been a spectacular bounce-back and also speaks to how the housing sector could lead the way for a broader economic recovery.” This positive news could be dampened by rising infection rates for the Covid-19 outbreak as some states reversed decisions to re-open additional parts of their economies.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Rises in April

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported that home prices grew by 0.10 percent to 4.70 percent on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. This reading lagged behind the worst part of the Covid-19 outbreak and analysts cautioned that home price growth would fall in the future. The Case-Shiller 20-City Index reported the top three cities for home price growth were Phoenix, Arizona, Seattle, Washington, and Minneapolis Minnesota. The geographical disparity between these cities differs from recent years when coastal cities dominated home price growth rates.

In related news, the Commerce Department reported improvement in construction spending in May. Construction spending fell -2.20 percent in May as compared to -3.50 percent in April.

 Mortgage Rates Hit All-Time Low; Jobless Claims Ease

Freddie Mac reported the lowest mortgage rates reported since the inception of their Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.07 percent and were eight basis points lower. Rates for 15-year mortgages dropped by three basis points on average to 2.56 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages dropped by eight basis points on average to 3.00 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. 

New jobless claims fell to 1.43 million claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 1.48 million initial claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims rose from 19.20 million claims to 19.30 million continuing jobless claims.filed. New and continuing jobless claims were far above pre-coronavirus levels.

Job Growth Reports Mixed as Unemployment Rate Falls

ADP reported 2.37  million private-sector jobs added in June as compared to May’s reading of 3.07 million private sector jobs added. The federal government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 4.80 million public and private sector jobs added in June as compared to 2.70 million public and private sector jobs added in May.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on job openings and weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Holds Steady In April

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Holds Steady In AprilCase-Shiller’s National Home Price Index showed little change in April as home prices rose by 0.10 percent to a year-over-year average of 4.70 percent. The 20-City Home Price Index showed corresponding home price growth of 0.10 percent to 4.00 percent year-over-year.

Ongoing influences on home price growth before the coronavirus pandemic included short supplies of available homes coupled with high demand for homes and low mortgage rates. While closures and shelter-at-home restrictions in many markets slowed buyer and seller activity,  real estate analysts said that home-buyer desiring to buy larger homes to accommodate working at home helped maintain home prices. Homeowners relocating to less congested areas also helped with stabilizing home-price growth in April. 

Case-Shiller 20-City Index: Home-Price Growth Rates Increases in 12 Cities

The three top cities in April’s 20-City Home Price Index were Phoneix, Arizona with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 8.80 percent; Seattle, Washington reported 7.30 percent yearly growth in home prices. Minneapolis, Minnesota reported home-price growth of 6.40 percent.

Home price growth rates increased in 12 of 19 cities reported. Detroit Michigan did not report to the 20-City Index for the second consecutive month. The coronavirus pandemic continued to grow and spread throughout the U.S during May; some states that opened their economies quickly are now reconsidering as Covid-19 cases rise at faster rates. Changing data and emerging responses to the spreading virus are expected to impact home price growth in the coming months according to whether the coronavirus spreads or diminishes.

FHFA Home Price Index: Home Prices Increase Despite Coronavirus Pandemic

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported 5.50 percent home price growth year-over-year in April compared to the March reading of 5.90 percent year-over-year growth. FHFA expects home prices to continue rising as real estate markets return to normal. With spring and early summer home sales impacted by coronavirus-related restrictions, Lynn Fisher, deputy director of research and statistics for FHFA, expected sales to pick up during the summer months.

As coronavirus infection rates increase, further restrictions and closings are anticipated and could negatively impact real estate markets and home prices soon.