Financial Report

While it’s not a set deal, the Federal Reserve does appear to be on track for a June rate cut, and following its two-day policy meeting, the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said it will keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% until then. 

Additionally, the government has also avoided another shut down as a series of rushed bills had approved spending for the government by another 1.2 trillion dollars. This is good news for lending markets as the debt ceiling has previously tied up rate decisions in the past.

FOMC Rate Decision

Federal Open Market Committee has stated it will maintain the current interest rate for central banks and will keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.

Existing Home Sales

The numbers: Home sales rose in February as home buyers snapped up a slew of new listings. Sales activity posted the biggest increase since February 2023. Sales of previously owned homes rose by 9.5% to an annualized rate of 4.38 million in February, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by +0.05% with the current rate at 6.21%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by +0.13% with the current rate at 6.87%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.20% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.40%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.20% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.42%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 210,000 compared to the expected claims of 213,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.

What’s Ahead

As of this week, the only thing to watch out for is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation outside of the CPI and PPI data releases. We will also be seeing initial estimates for the first quarter GDP estimates, gauging the total growth of the economy.

Last week’s inflation data came in at a higher rate than expected, with Price Producer Index (PPI) numbers showing more than double the expected inflation gain.

With both CPI and PPI being over the target, the steadfast certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut rates has now taken a step back, resulting in more tamed expectations for the near future.

With a mixed response from lending partners, this may end up rapidly changing in the next round of discussions with the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell this coming week, as well as a final rate decision.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices matched the biggest increase in February in five months, leaving the yearly rate of inflation above 3% a week before the Federal Reserve meets again to consider when to cut interest rates. The consumer price index climbed 0.4% last month, the government said, largely because of higher gas prices and housing costs. It was the largest increase since last September.

Price Producer Index

The biggest increase in wholesale costs since last summer is the latest in a string of readings that suggest inflation might not slow quickly toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. The producer-price index jumped 0.6% in February, the government said Thursday. The increase matched the largest gain since last August. This was double the expected 0.3% projections.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.06% with the current rate at 6.16%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.14% with the current rate at 6.74%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a +0.22% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.60%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a +0.22% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.62%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 209,000 compared to the expected claims of 218,000. The prior week landed at 210,000.

What’s Ahead

The Federal Reserve Rate Decision will be the most important aspect of this coming week, as well as talks with other Federal Reserve board members — as whether there is a rate cut or not will help decide where many markets will be headed for the next quarter.

With a focus on the upcoming inflation data reports with CPI and PPI this week, the previous week was very light on data. The only relevant reports released were the non-farm payroll and U.S. trade balance data releases. 

Job reports are showing robust hiring numbers and the trade balance remains within expectations. There appears to be to not much to fear coming from this next round of inflation data. Lending partners are reflecting this sentiment as they continue to cut rates.

Non-farm Payrolls

The economy created a greater-than-expected 275,000 new jobs in February, in a seemingly bullish display that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision on when to cut U.S. interest rates. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had predicted a 198,000 increase in new jobs last month.

U.S. Trade Balance

The U.S. international trade deficit widened 5.1% in January to $67.4 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. It is the largest trade gap since April 2023; the widening was larger than expected. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted the deficit would widen to a seasonally adjusted $63.4 billion from the initial estimate of a deficit of $62.2 billion in June.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 6.22%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease by -0.06% with the current rate at 6.88%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.19% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.38%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.17% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.40%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 which was right in line with expectations. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead

Upcoming we have the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index releases for next week; there will not be many other releases.