15
Nov
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 15, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - November 15, 2021Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on inflation and a preliminary report on consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Inflationary Growth Exceeds Expectations, Creates Consumer Challenges

October’s inflation rate rose to its highest year-over-year pace in 31 years last week with a reading of 6.20 percent growth as compared to September’s year-over-year growth rate of 5.40 percent. Inflation rose by 0.90 percent month-to-month in October as compared to September’s reading of 0.40 percent growth. Consumers paid more for essential goods including food, fuel, and transportation. October’s inflationary growth rate surpassed the Federal Reserve’s inflationary goal of 2.00 percent year-over-year.

Pandemic-related conditions continued to delay supply chains and further limited goods and services available to consumers. Auto prices were higher due to lower production and falling inventories. Slim supplies and high demand caused rising prices in many economic sectors. Rising prices currently outstrip income growth, which renders current inflationary conditions unsustainable for many consumers.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.60 percent in October and exceeded predictions of an 0.40 percent increase based on September’s reading of 0.20 percent month-to-month core inflation.

The Federal Reserve recently described ongoing high inflation as “transitory,” but it appears to be going nowhere anytime soon.

Mortgage Rates Fall; Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 11 basis points to 2.98 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.27 percent and were eight basis points lower. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.53 percent and one basis point lower. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Last week’s new jobless claims fell to 267,000 initial claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 271,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims rose to 2.16 million claims filed as compared to the reading of 2.10 million ongoing claims filed in the prior week.

The University of Michigan released its preliminary reading for November’s Consumer Sentiment Index and reported a November index reading of 66.8, which was lower than the expected reading of 72.0 and October’s index reading of 71.7. Consumer concerns over growing inflation and higher costs caused consumer sentiment about current economic conditions to dip.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index, along with readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

05
Nov
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

FOMC Statement: Fed Policymakers Discuss Easing Accommodations as Economy Improves

FOMC Statement: Fed Policymakers Discuss Easing Accommodations as Economy ImprovesThe Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee considered easing monetary accommodations implemented in response to stronger economic conditions according to its post-meeting statement issued November 3. The Fed started making trillions in monthly bond purchases when the pandemic started but slowed its purchasing pace to $120 billion per month in June 2020. The Fed will soon reduce its monthly bond purchases to $105 billion monthly.

The Fed said it will continue to purchase bonds until the economy makes “substantial progress” toward its legally mandated goals of achieving two percent inflation and maximum employment. Supply shortages and high demand for goods caused by the pandemic have impacted the overall economy, but labor markets have suffered disproportionately. Pandemic-driven quits and retirements have left many job openings that remain unfilled.  Service-related jobs in hospitality and travel have been especially hard-hit as consumers continued to stay home.

Fed Calls High Inflation “Transitory”

Federal Reserve policymakers continued to call current higher-than-expected inflation “transitory,” but did not explain how long high inflation is expected to last. Supply-chain logjams continued to negatively impact supply and demand for goods and services; in some cases, high demand and short supplies drove inflation higher: “Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases in some sectors.”

FOMC members did not raise the current benchmark interest rate range of 0.00 to 0.25 percent, but financial markets expect two or more rate hikes in 2022.

Fed Chair Expects Inflation to Remain High into Mid-2022

Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented on high inflation during a press conference given after the FOMC post-meeting statement: “Our baseline expectation is that supply chain bottlenecks and shortages will persist well into next year and elevated inflation as well.” Chair Powell continued: “As the pandemic eases, supply chain issues will abate and growth will move up. As that happens, inflation will decline from today’s elevated levels.”

Mr. Powell further commented that he expected labor markets to strengthen as the delta variant of the covid virus continues to decline. 

01
Nov
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 1, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - November 1, 2021Last week’s economic reports included readings on home price growth from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, data on new home sales, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published. 

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slower, but Prices Aren’t Falling

National home prices rose by a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 19.80 percent in August, which was incrementally lower than July’s year-over-year home price growth rate. Analysts said that rising mortgage rates caused some buyers to leave the market and eased demand in areas where bidding wars drove home prices beyond market value in some areas.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index reported a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of  19.70 percent growth for August home prices in metro areas included in the index. Home price growth was slower than July’s year-over-year reading of 20.00 percent. Phoenix, Arizona held the top position with year-over-year home price growth of 33.30 percent. San Diego, California maintained second place with year-over-year home price growth of 26.20 percent. Tampa, Florida displaced previous holders of third place with its home price growth rate of 25.90 percent.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at  S&P Dow Jones Indices, said: “Every one of our city and composite indices stands at its all-time high, and year-over-year price growth continues to be very strong, although moderating somewhat from last month’s levels.”

The Federal Housing Finance Administration, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, published similar results for home price growth in August. Lynn Fisher, deputy director for research and statistics at FHFA, said, “Annual house price gains remained extremely high in August, but the pace of month-over-month gains continues to decelerate…This suggests we may have seen the peak in annual home price  gains for the time being.”

Recent home price growth was driven by high demand for homes and limited supplies of new and pre-owned homes for sale, but rapidly rising home prices and mortgage rates sidelined some buyers.

Mortgage Rates Rise as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose five basis points to 3.14 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose four basis points and averaged 2.37 percent. The average rate for a  5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose two basis points to 2.56 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 281,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 291,000 new claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims filed also decreased with 2.24 million continuing claims filed as compared to 2.48 million continuing jobless claims filed during the prior week.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for October rose to an index reading of 71.7 as compared to September’s reading of 71.4. Analysts expected a reading of 71.9 for October.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending, the post-meeting statement, and a press conference from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Data on public and private-sector jobs will be released along with the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.