04
Oct
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 4, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - October 4, 2021Last week’s economic reporting included readings from S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the National Association of Realtors®’ report on pending home sales, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for September. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller Reports 4th Consecutive Month of Record Home Price Growth

July Home Prices grew at a year-over-year pace of 19.70 percent as compared to June’s home price growth rate of 18.70 percent according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index reported that July home prices grew by 19.90 percent year-over-year; 17 of 20 cities posted higher home price growth rates in September than in August. The top three home price growth rates in the 20-City Home Price Index were held by Phoenix, Arizona at 32.40 percent; San Diego, California home prices grew by 27.80 percent, and Seattle, Washington home prices grew by 25.50 percent year-over-year in September.

Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of investment strategy for S&P Dow Jones Indices, said “The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains but in the consistency of gains across the country.” This differed from the traditional pattern of rapid home price growth in high-demand coastal metro areas as the covid pandemic drove homebuyers to seek out less congested and less expensive metro areas.

Pending home sales rose by 8.10 percent in August according to the National Association of Realtors® and far exceeded analyst expectations of 1.20 percent growth and July’s reading of -1.80 percent growth in pending home sales. Pending home sales are sales for which purchase contracts are signed, but the transactions are not completed. Real estate pros and mortgage lenders use pending home sales to predict future home sales and loan closings.

Mortgage Rates, Initial Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the yield on 10-Year Treasuries rose. The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 13 basis points to 3.01 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages also rose by 13 basis points and averaged 2.28 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.48 percent and five basis points higher. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages; 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims increased to 362,000 first-time claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 351,000 new claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims decreased to 2.80 million continuing claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 2.82 million continuing jobless claims filed.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to an index reading of  72.8 in September from August’s reading of 71.0. Analysts expected no change from August’s reading. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on public and private sector jobs, the national unemployment rate, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

 

27
Sep
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 27, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 27, 2021Last week’s economic news included reporting on housing markets, housing starts, and building permits issued. Data on new and existing home sales were published along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Ticks Up as Demand for Homes Holds Steady

The National Association of Home Builders reported a one-point gain in its Housing Market Index for September with an index reading of 76. Analysts expected no change based on August’s reading of 75. Component readings for the HMI were mixed; the index reading for builder confidence in current market conditions rose one point to 82. Builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months was unchanged at 81 and builder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family housing developments rose two points to an index reading of 61.

Builders continue to face headwinds as materials costs and home prices continue to rise. Home prices present a challenge to would-be buyers who don’t want to pay inflated prices or cannot qualify for mortgages based on rapidly rising home prices. Persistent shortages of homes kept homebuilders busy, but shortages of building materials forced builders to pace construction according to materials availability.

Housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.62 million starts in August; analysts expected a pace of 1.55 million starts, which was unchanged from July’s housing starts. Building permits were issued at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.73 million permits, which surpassed the expected reading of 1.62 million permits issued and July’s reading of 1.63 million permits issued.

Existing Home Sales Fall in August as New Home Sales Rise

The National Association of Realtors® reported fewer sales of previously-owned homes in August. 5.88 million homes were sold on a seasonally adjusted annual basis as compared to July’s reading of 6.00 million pre-owned homes sold. Slim supplies of previously-owned homes for sale, rising home prices, and competition with cash buyers sidelined buyers who preferred to wait for less challenging housing market conditions.

Limited options in available pre-owned homes boosted new home sales in August. 740,000 new homes were sold on a seasonally adjusted annual basis as compared to the expected reading of 720,000 new homes sold and July’s reading of 729,000 new homes sold.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported mixed readings for mortgage rates last week as average rates for fixed-rate mortgages rose and the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two points and averaged 2.88 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by three basis points to 2.15 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell by eight basis points to 2.43 percent. Discount points averaged  0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

New jobless claims rose to 351,000 initial claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 335,000 initial claims filed. 2.85 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 2.71 million continuing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from S&P  Case-Shiller on home price growth, pending home sales, and construction spending. The University of Michigan will release its monthly Consumer Sentiment Index and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

20
Sep
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – September 20, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 20, 2021Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on consumer prices, retail sales, and the University of  Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Consumer Price Growth Slows in August

The Consumer Price Index reported that consumer prices grew by  0.30 percent in August as compared to July’s consumer price growth pace of 0.50 percent. Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food and fuel sectors, also slowed in August to a pace of 0.10 percent as compared to July’s reading of 0.30 percent growth. Used-car prices fell for the first time in six months but remained 32 percent higher year-over-year. Inventories of new and used cars were lower due to supply chain problems caused by the pandemic.

August’s Consumer Price Index rose by 5.30 percent year-over-year;  the Core Consumer Price Index grew by 4.00 percent year-over-year in August, which was unchanged from July’s year-over-year consumer price growth. Analysts expressed mixed opinions about how quickly inflation will slow, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed expects inflation to slow to the Fed’s targeted pace of 2.00 percent within the next year. Federal Reserve policymakers expect materials and labor shortages to ease as the post-pandemic recovery continues.

Retail Sales Rise in August

Retail sales rose by 0.70 percent in August and surpassed negative projections and July’s reading of -1.80 percent. Analysts said that inflation accounted for some of the increased sales, but said that consumers were spending despite the spreading  Delta variant of the Coronavirus. Retail sales rose by 1.80 percent when automotive sales were excluded. Shortages of new and used cars dragged down the pace of retail sales.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported little change in mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged two basis points lower at 2.86 percent; Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by seven basis points to 2.12 percent on average. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by nine basis points to an average of 2.51 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell to 0.10 percent on average.

Initial jobless claims rose to 332,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 312,000 initial claims filed. Continuing claims fell with 2.67 million ongoing jobless claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 2.85 million ongoing claims filed.

The University of Michigan released its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for September and reported a one-point increase in September’s index reading of 71.0. Analysts forecasted a reading of 72.0 based on the August reading of 70.3.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders,

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will release its post-meeting statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a press conference. Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits will be released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.