Jobless Claims

Many of the reports scheduled for release last week were delayed yet again, including the anticipated unemployment data. There is an expectation that they will be released next week. The only on-time release was the third-party Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan, which aligned with expectations and generally indicated that consumers remain dissatisfied with the current state of things, citing high prices and consistently weakening incomes.

Univ. of Michigan Consumer Report
Consumer sentiment was little changed this month with a 2.6 index point decrease from October that is within the margin of error. After the federal shutdown ended, sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading. However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes. This month, current personal finances and buying conditions for durables both plunged more than 10%, whereas expectations for the future improved modestly.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 5.51%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 6.23%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 5.86%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week.Current rates at 5.88%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were delayed until the following week.

What’s Ahead
PPI and PCE Index inflation reports are the biggest data releases next week, along with the delayed unemployment data.

This week finally got a strong release of regularly scheduled data, with unemployment figures coming out first, along with employment-rate data.

The prior week included the Consumer Price Index, which came in favorable. Some of the unemployment-related numbers, however, weren’t as telling as they could be: the forecast was roughly 50,000, but the actual figure landed closer to 110,000. That’s an order-of-magnitude miss, suggesting we may need to allow some time for the data to self-correct.

The coming week is slated to include both the PPI—which has drifted out of sync with the CPI—and the PCE Index. These are the two major releases to watch. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly mentioned that the PCE Index is their preferred inflation indicator, and that is likely to remain the case going forward.

Unemployment Report
The long-delayed September employment report showed the U.S. created 119,000 new jobs, a surprisingly robust increase that could give the Federal Reserve more reason to shelve a third interest-rate cut in a row next month. The increase in new jobs was the largest since April, but hiring has slowed down sharply this year. Indeed, the economy lost jobs in June and August.

Jobless Reports
The first jobless-claims report since the government shutdown shows no spike in layoffs. Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 220,000 in the week ended Nov. 15, the Labor Department said Thursday. The last jobless-claims report prior to the shutdown showed claims at 219,000.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week, with the current rate at 5.54%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.26%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 5.94%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week.Current rates at 5.95%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 220,000 compared to the expected claims of 227,000. The prior week landed at 232,000.

What’s Ahead
PPI and PCE Index inflation reports are the biggest data releases next week. They should be very impactful.

In the aftermath of the recent government shutdown, the expected releases are still delayed. This round of releases is particularly impactful, involving key inflation reports from both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. While the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE Index—and also relies on its own methods for collecting inflation data—the delay is undoubtedly troubling for the broader market, as the shutdown disrupted a wide range of services across the nation. The data is now expected to be released next week.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rate at 5.49%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.24%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.02%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.04%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
Inflation reports are slated to be released next week, but there is potential that they could be delayed further.