Jobless Claims

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator has come in showing that inflation is still running hotter than expected. This creates a difficult position for the Federal Reserve as it tries to balance interest rate cuts while managing inflation at the same time. Despite previous rate adjustments, inflation has remained stubbornly high.

It remains to be seen whether any monetary policy will be able to curb the recent trend as it stands. This was also accompanied by a 0.4% increase in personal income, which has been the status quo for some time now. Inflation outpacing wage growth has been a major concern on most consumers’ minds. Lastly, GDP has grown by an unexpected amount, showing that the economy still has room for growth for the foreseeable future.

GDP
The U.S. expanded at a subpar 1.4% annual pace in the fourth quarter of 2025, depressed by a long federal shutdown that caused government spending to plunge. Still, the economy grew at a solid 2.2% rate for all of 2025, a fifth straight year of above-average growth, the latest report on U.S. gross domestic product showed. GDP is the official scorecard for the economy.

PCE Index
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed that prices rose close to 3% in 2025, leaving the central bank with more work to do to get cost-of-living increases back down to prepandemic lows. The personal consumption expenditures index rose 0.4% in December, the government said Friday in a report delayed by federal shutdowns.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09%, with the current rate at 5.35%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08%, with the current rate at 6.01%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with current rates at 5.63%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with current rates at 5.65%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 206,000 compared to the expected claims of 223,000. The prior week landed at 229,000.

What’s Ahead
Unemployment data is set to be released next week, along with a slew of additional reports. This has become an increasingly important topic in recent weeks.

In an unexpected turn, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation came in cooler than expected for the month of January, falling to a five-year low.

The jobs report showed that unemployment numbers came in worse than expected, perhaps signaling further hesitation from the Federal Reserve, despite inflation data coming in favorably.

This is also in light of retail sales data showing that, when accounting for post-holiday trends, retail activity has hit a significant slump. This suggests that Americans’ buying habits have changed substantially from the prior year, offering further insight that price pressures are still present at current levels. There is still considerable speculation that the Federal Reserve will move forward with an additional rate cut later this year.

Consumer Price Index
Consumer prices rose less than expected in January, and the rate of inflation fell to a five-year low by one measure, offering an encouraging sign to Federal Reserve officials as they weigh whether to cut interest rates again. The consumer-price index increased a modest 0.2% in January, a tick below the Wall Street forecast.

Retail Sales
Retail sales were flat in December, the government said Tuesday in a report delayed by the federal shutdown last fall. The numbers are seasonally adjusted. Fourth-quarter sales more broadly were also on the softer side compared with the prior two quarters. Americans spent more money than they usually do in the spring and summer to avoid price increases tied to higher U.S. tariffs. It appears they scaled back purchases in the second half of the year to compensate.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02%, with the current rate at 6.09%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.13%, with current rates at 5.62%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.13%, with current rates at 5.64%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 227,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 232,000.

What’s Ahead
GDP Estimates and PCE Index Inflation Data is set to release next week as the largest data releases.

While Consumer Sentiment has inched up slightly, Consumer Credit tells a different story. Credit usage has continued to rise, suggesting increased financial strain on consumers amid ongoing economic pressures such as inflation. Although another rate cut is still expected, its likelihood remains uncertain under the current administration.

Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January 2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings.

Consumer Credit
In 2025, consumer credit increased 2.4 percent, with revolving and nonrevolving credit increasing 3.4 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. During the fourth quarter, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.0 percent, while in December it increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7 percent.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 5.50%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 6.11%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04%, with current rates at 5.75%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04%, with current rates at 5.77%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 231,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The prior week landed at 209,000.

What’s Ahead
GDP Estimates and PCE Index Inflation Data is set to release next week as the largest data releases.