Jobless Claims

This week saw relatively light activity, primarily focused on discussions with the Federal Reserve Board. The only truly notable report released was the Consumer Sentiment Report, which happily reported that sentiment had risen for the month of October. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book survey noted a slight decline in manufacturing activity.

Consumer Sentiment (Final)

Confidence among Republicans in a potential Donald Trump victory helped drive consumer sentiment to a six-month high less than two weeks before the U.S. presidential election. The University of Michigan reported on Friday that the initial October reading of consumer sentiment rose to 70.5, up slightly from 70.1 in the previous month—marking the highest level since April.

Federal Reserve’s Beige Book

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book survey of conditions across the country continued to paint a weak picture, with nine out of 12 regional district banks reporting flat or a slight decline in activity. Most districts reported declining manufacturing activity and consumers were reported to be on the hunt for bargains.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08% with the current rate at 5.71%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.10% with the current rate at 6.54%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.23% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.36%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a 0.24% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.38%
  

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 227,000 compared to the expected claims of 245,000. The prior week landed at 242,000.

What’s Ahead

With such a light release schedule the previous week, we should be returning to a heavier release schedule next week. The most relevant and impactful reports are job releases, personal income, non-farm payrolls, S&P Manufacturing PMI final statistics, and JOLTS job change openings.

The release of last week’s inflation data has left this week with very few significant data updates. The most important information will come from various Federal Reserve members speaking on different topics. They have consistently emphasized that they will closely monitor the data to decide whether further rate cuts are needed in their upcoming rate decision meeting. Much of the market is optimistic that rate cuts will continue. Additionally, several smaller retail sales data releases are expected soon, which will provide insight into the current strength of the economy.

Retail Sales

Retail sales increased 0.4% in September, with strength in a broad range of categories that overcame weak gas and auto spending, the U.S. Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% gain.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.22% with the current rate at 5.63%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.14% with the current rate at 6.44%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.01% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.13%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a 0.01% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.14%
  

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 241,000 compared to the expected claims of 260,000. The prior week landed at 260,000.

What’s Ahead

A surprisingly light week ahead once again, with only the Federal Reserve’s Beige book and S&P Preliminary numbers for the Producer Manufacturing Index.

The CPI and PPI reports delivered their data, showing inflation figures slightly below expectations. However, the positive impact of these reports was tempered by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve members during recent meetings. Despite this, the overall outlook remains optimistic, as further rate cuts are anticipated. Lending partners have also responded positively, significantly lowering their lending rates over the past month.

Consumer Credit

Consumer credit increased by $8.9 billion in August, following a revised $26.6 billion surge in July, the Federal Reserve reported on Monday. This represents a 2.1% annual growth rate in August, a slowdown from the 6.3% rise in the previous month. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a larger increase of $13.2 billion in August.

CPI

U.S. wholesale prices were unchanged in September, pointing to subdued inflation in the economy. This suggests that a bigger-than-expected increase in consumer prices last month is unlikely to last. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.1% increase.

PPI

A key measure of consumer inflation increased slightly more than expected in September, which could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plan to cut U.S. interest rates twice more this year. The ‘core’ consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3% for the second consecutive month, according to a government report on Thursday. Wall Street analysts had predicted a smaller increase of 0.2% for this core inflation measure.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.16% with the current rate at 5.41%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.20% with the current rate at 6.32%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a 0.08% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.12%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a 0.07% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.13%
  

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 258,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 225,000.

What’s Ahead

There will be a very light week ahead after the release of the CPI and PPI reports, with only regular jobs data to note.