What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 31st, 2025

With the introduction of tariffs on Tuesday, there is significant uncertainty across all sectors regarding the potential outcome. While important data releases—including the PCE Index, Personal Income & Spending, and Consumer Sentiment for the quarter—have taken place, their impact is expected to be largely overshadowed by apprehension surrounding the widespread tariff decisions.

With the upcoming release of inflation reports, including the CPI and PPI this week, all eyes will be on these two key metrics. The focus remains on tariffs and their impact on the markets, as well as inflation, which is likely to be influenced by the new tariff policies.

PCI Index

A separate measure of prices known as the core rate rose a sharper 0.4% in February, a tick above Wall Street’s forecast. The increase in the core PCE in the past year climbed to 2.8% from 2.7%. The core rate omits food and energy prices, which often jump up and down in the short run. It’s seen as a better predictor of future inflation.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending rose a modest 0.4% last month, the government said, and rebounded from a decline in January. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had projected a 0.5% gain. Household spending is the main engine of the U.S. economy, but it appears to have sputtered in early 2025.

Consumer Sentiment

The final reading of consumer sentiment in March fell to a 32-month low, as more Americans than at any time since the financial crisis think unemployment will rise in the year ahead. The second of two readings of the consumer-sentiment survey fell to 57.0 from an initial 57.9, the University of Michigan said Friday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% with the current rate at 5.89%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 6.65%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.18%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.20%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 224,000 compared to the expected claims of 226,000. The prior week landed at 225,000.

What’s Ahead

CPI and PPI are ahead next week as well as the tariffs, which are set to be in effect starting Tuesday.

The Difference Between FICO Score and Credit Score: How It Affects Your Mortgage and Rates

When applying for a mortgage, your creditworthiness plays a significant role in determining your loan approval and interest rates. Two commonly referenced terms are FICO score and credit score, which are often used interchangeably but have distinct differences.

1. What is a Credit Score?

A credit score is a broad term that refers to a numerical representation of a consumer’s credit risk. It is calculated based on various scoring models, including FICO and VantageScore, and is derived from credit report data such as payment history, credit utilization, and length of credit history.

2. What is a FICO Score?

A FICO score is a specific type of credit score developed by the Fair Isaac Corporation. It is the most widely used scoring model by mortgage lenders. FICO scores range from 300 to 850 and are calculated based on five key factors:

  • Payment history (35%)
  • Amounts owed (30%)
  • Length of credit history (15%)
  • Credit mix (10%)
  • New credit inquiries (10%)

3. How Do They Affect Your Mortgage?

  • Interest Rates: A higher FICO score typically qualifies you for lower mortgage interest rates, while a lower score may result in higher rates or loan denial.
  • Loan Approval: Lenders often have minimum credit score requirements, and FICO scores are a primary factor in the underwriting process.
  • Loan Terms: Your score can affect down payment requirements and loan programs available to you, such as conventional, FHA, or VA loans.

4. Key Differences

  • Scope: Credit scores can come from various models, while FICO is a specific scoring model.
  • Usage: Most mortgage lenders rely heavily on FICO scores for risk assessment.
  • Impact: Your FICO score has a direct influence on mortgage rates and loan eligibility.

Understanding the distinction between a FICO score and a credit score is essential when preparing for a mortgage application. By improving your FICO score, you can increase your chances of securing better loan terms and lower interest rates.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 24th, 2025

The previous week had the Federal Reserve making their first rate decision since the Trump administration had taken office. With many uncertainties about the current direction of things, the Federal Reserve had decided there would not be any change necessary to the current rates. Stating that the current inflation and economic conditions have largely been a result of the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs. Chairman Powell has been strongly dovish at this point, stating they would need to “see how things actually work out.” There were a slew of other minor data releases but none were far reaching in their impact on the economy and current direction of things.

FOMC Rate Decision

Faced with pressing concerns over the impact tariffs will have on a slowing economy, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December. Markets had been pricing in virtually zero chance of a move at this week’s two-day policy meeting.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03% with the current rate at 5.83%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% with the current rate at 6.67%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.13% for this week. Current rates at 6.15%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.13% for this week. Current rates at 6.17%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 223,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 221,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week should feature a slew of data releases, most notably the GDP Estimates, S&P Global US Manufacturing / Services PMI estimates, Consumer Confidence, Consumer Sentiment (Univ. of Michigan), and Personal Income & Spending.