08
Jul
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 8th, 2024

With the FOMC Minutes coming precisely within expectations, there is once again a lot of optimism that the Federal Reserve may cut rates this year. Much of the Q2 data reports show favorable amounts of reduction in inflation as well as a more stable economic outlook for the rest of the year. With the larger reports in PMI Manufacturing numbers and Non-farm Payroll figures, the overall outlook seems to align with the rest of the data points, justifying the more recent optimism about potential rate cuts. This week should give the final results on Q2 inflation results with the new releases of CPI and PPI data reports.

Global US Manufacturing PMI

A key barometer of U.S. factories fell in June for the third month in a row, signaling that an ongoing slump in the industrial side of the economy shows no sign of ending. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index slipped to 48.5% in June from 48.7% in the prior month. Numbers below 50% signal that the manufacturing sector is shrinking.

U.S. Hourly Wages

Wage growth for the last 12 months ending in June slowed to 3.9% from 4.1%, marking the smallest increase seen since August 2021. At one point, yearly wages were rising as fast as 5.9%. A shortage of labor prompted millions to change jobs in pursuit of better pay, particularly to cope with significant inflation.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.09% with the current rate at 6.25%
  • 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.09% with the current rate at 6.95%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.50%
  • 30-Yr VA rates are seeing no change for this week. Current rates at 6.52%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 238,000 compared to the expected claims of 233,000. The prior week landed at 234,000.

What’s Ahead

CPI and PPI are the most relevant reports coming up, with the rest of the week having an extremely light release schedule. 

01
Jul
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 1st, 2024

Following the release of key data such as the FOMC rate decision and CPI and PPI inflation reports, only the PCE Index reports remained to set the course, which are coming in well within expectations. The Consumer Confidence Report is also a significant concern since it influences broader economic decisions when consumers hesitate to spend, usually due to rising living costs.

Consumer Confidence Report

Consumers were slightly more optimistic about the economy at the end of June, but the effects of high inflation in the past few years still weighed on their minds. The final reading of the consumer sentiment index rose to 68.2 in June from a preliminary 65.6 earlier in the month, but it’s still the lowest level in seven months. The index also stands well below a prepandemic peak of 101. Although Americans think inflation will ease, they say high inflation and slower income growth have worried them more about their finances, according to the University of Michigan survey.

PCE Index

The Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index was unchanged last month, the government said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a flat reading. If inflation continues to recede in the next few months, the Fed could lay the groundwork to cut U.S. interest rates in the fall. The increase in inflation in the past 12 months slipped to 2.6% from 2.7%. The Fed is aiming to bring inflation down to 2% a year.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.03% with the current rate at 6.16%
  • 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.01% with the current rate at 6.86%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing an increase by 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.51%
  • 30-Yr VA rates are seeing an increase by 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.52%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 233,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week was landed at 239,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week, we anticipate ISM Manufacturing data, U.S. trade deficits, and overall U.S. unemployment figures to provide further insights into the direction of the economy. Despite being less comprehensive reports, they often serve as early indicators of inflation trends which are a crucial focus for all stakeholders.

26
Jun
By First Rate Financial Group
Mortgage Rates

How Economic Trends Influence Mortgage Lending

As a consumer, understanding these economic trends can empower you to make informed decisions about your mortgage. Let’s discuss some key economic factors that influence mortgage lending and what they mean for you.

Interest Rates: The Pulse of Mortgage Lending

Interest rates are perhaps the most significant economic indicator affecting mortgage lending. When the Federal Reserve adjusts its benchmark interest rate, it directly impacts the rates banks offer on mortgages.

Low-Interest Rates: In a low-interest-rate environment, borrowing costs decrease, making mortgages more affordable. This often leads to increased home buying, as lower monthly payments are more attractive to consumers.

High-Interest Rates: Conversely, high interest rates can dampen the housing market. Higher borrowing costs mean higher monthly payments, which can deter potential buyers and slow down the housing market.

Economic Growth and Employment

The overall health of the economy, measured by GDP growth and employment rates, also significantly influences mortgage lending.

Strong Economic Growth: When the economy is growing, employment rates are typically high, and wages are rising. This creates a favorable environment for mortgage lending, as more people have stable incomes and are confident in their ability to make mortgage payments. Lenders are also more willing to extend credit in such an environment.

Economic Downturns: On the flip side, during economic downturns, unemployment rises, and wages stagnate or fall. This can lead to stricter lending criteria as lenders become more cautious about extending credit. Consumers might also be more hesitant to take on large debts, such as mortgages, during uncertain times.

Inflation and Housing Market Trends

Inflation and specific trends in the housing market also play pivotal roles in mortgage lending.

Inflation: When inflation rises, the cost of living increases, and so do interest rates, as the Federal Reserve attempts to curb inflation. Higher interest rates translate to higher mortgage rates, which can slow down the housing market.

Housing Market Trends: Trends such as housing supply and demand, regional housing market strength, and overall housing prices also affect mortgage lending. In hot housing markets, where demand outstrips supply, prices rise, and lenders may become more competitive with their mortgage offerings. Conversely, in a cooling market, lenders might tighten their criteria to mitigate risk.

Government Policies and Regulations

Government policies and regulations can have a profound impact on mortgage lending.

Tax Policies: Changes in tax laws, such as the mortgage interest deduction, can influence the attractiveness of taking on a mortgage.

Regulatory Changes:
Regulatory changes can either tighten or loosen lending standards. Policies designed to encourage homeownership might make mortgages more accessible, while those aimed at preventing another financial crisis could result in stricter lending criteria.

Global Economic Factors

Global economic conditions can also trickle down to affect domestic mortgage lending. Events such as international trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and global economic slowdowns can impact interest rates and economic stability, influencing mortgage markets indirectly.

What This Means for You

As a potential homeowner or someone looking to refinance, staying informed about these economic trends can help you make strategic decisions. Here are some practical tips:

  1. Monitor Interest Rates: Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve’s actions and general interest rate trends. Lock in a mortgage when rates are low to save on interest over the life of your loan.
  2. Assess Your Financial Stability: Ensure that your income is stable and that you have a healthy credit score. This will make it easier to qualify for a mortgage, especially in uncertain economic times.
  3. Consider the Economic Cycle: If the economy is strong and growing, it might be a good time to buy, as employment is high, and incomes are generally rising. Conversely, during an economic downturn, you might face tighter lending conditions but could benefit from lower prices if you are financially secure.
  4. Stay Updated on Government Policies: Be aware of any changes in tax laws or regulations that could affect your mortgage. Understanding these can help you take advantage of beneficial policies or prepare for stricter lending standards.
  5. Think Long-Term: While economic conditions fluctuate, your mortgage is a long-term commitment. Consider not just the current economic environment but also your long-term financial goals and stability.

Economic trends have a significant impact on mortgage lending, influencing everything from interest rates to lender policies. By staying informed and understanding these trends, you can make better decisions and secure the best possible terms for your mortgage. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or looking to refinance, being aware of the economic landscape can help you navigate the complex world of mortgage lending with confidence.