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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – May 2, 2016

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic news included Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, along with new and pending home sales readings. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve met analyst’s expectations and did not raise the target federal funds rate, which remains at 0.25 to 0.50 percent. Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates survey and the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report were also released.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in February

Average home prices growth slowed in February according to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Home prices fell from January’s year-over-year reading of 5.70 percent to 5.40 percent. 13 of 20 cities included in the index showed slower growth in home prices. Portland, Oregon showed the highest year-over-year price gain at 11.90 percent followed by Seattle, Washington at 11.00 percent and Denver, Colorado at 9.70 percent

Washington, DC had the slowest year-over-year growth rate of 1.40 percent; Chicago, Illinois and New York, New York where home prices grew 1.80 percent and 2.10 percent respectively. S&P Index Chairman David Blitzer said that tight inventories of available homes continued to drive home prices. Analysts are concerned with shrinking affordability, which keeps first-time and moderate income buyers from buying homes. Analysts caution that first-time and moderate-income buyers are the “bread and butter” of housing markets. Without their participation, current homeowners cannot sell and move up to larger homes.

New Home Sales Lower after February Reading Revised

New home sales dipped in March to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 511,000 after February’s reading was revised upward to 519,000 sales. Regional results for new home sales were mixed. The Northeast posted flat sales in March; The Midwest posted the highest year-over-year growth in home prices at 18.50 percent followed by the South with a year-over-year gain of 5.00 percent. New home sales fell by 23.60 percent in the West, which was likely due to rapidly escalating home prices in high-cost metro areas.

Pending home sales for March grew by 1.40 percent for a second consecutive monthly increase. Analysts viewed March’s reading as positive for a healthy spring season for home sales. Pending home sales forecast future closings and mortgage lending.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage seven basis points higher at 3.66 percent. 15-year fixed mortgage rates were four basis points higher at 2.89 percent; the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was five basis points higher at 2.86 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60, 0.50 and 0.50 percent respectively.

New jobless claims also rose last week with 257,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 260,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 248,000 new claims filed. Analysts said that fewer layoffs suggest strengthening job market. Last week’s four-week average of new jobless claims was 256,000 new claims, which was the lowest reading since December 1973. Improving labor markets can encourage would-be home buyers to become active buyers.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes reports on construction spending, private sector employment, non-farm payrolls and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on new jobless claims and mortgage rates will be released as usual.

Fed Holds Steady on Federal Funds Rate

Fed Holds Steady on Federal Funds Rate

In its post-meeting statement, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced its decision not to raise the current federal funds rate of 0.25 to 0.50 percent. Although FOMC members acknowledged further improvement in the U.S. economy and jobs markets, the committee cited the following as influencing its decision not to raise the current federal funds rate:

  • Household income continued to rise, but consumers have “moderated” their spending.
  • Inflation is expected to remain below the Fed’s goal of two percent in the near term.
  • Temporary influences including low energy and import prices are expected to ease.

FOMC monetary policy decisions made in April’s meeting were guided by the Fed’s dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and its inflation goal of two percent. Labor markets improved since the Committee’s March meeting, but inflation is not expected to reach the Fed’s goal in the near term.

No Fed Rate Increase in April; Moderate Increases Expected

While the FOMC did not raise the federal funds rate, its statement suggested that future rate increases are likely. Potential increases in the federal funds rate would be gradual into the medium term. FOMC’s April statement hinted that incremental rate increases over time would be expected to facilitate further economic growth and help achieve the two percent inflation goal. According to the statement, any potential increases in the federal funds rate would be “accommodative.” This indicates that FOMC members do not want to raise rates too quickly, which could interfere with current economic growth.

Fed Concerns over Global Economy Ease

Notably absent from April’s FOMC statement were concerns over global economic conditions and developments. In March, the Fed characterized global economic and financial conditions as a risk to U.S. economic growth, but April’s statement said that FOMC members would continue monitoring global news and developments with no mention of potential risks.

Analysts said that the Fed could have been “more hawkish” in its position, but also said that a rate increase could occur in June if FOMC members conclude that economic conditions are favorable. FOMC statements typically indicate that monetary policy decisions are pre-determined way, but rely on the committee’s ongoing review of global and domestic financial and economic developments.

Unless economic developments intervene, Fed policy makers opened the door to a rate increase in June. Past FOMC statements indicated plans to raise the federal funds rate up to four times in 2016, but these plans were revised to two potential rate increases for 2016.

The HARP Refinance Program Has Been Extended into 2016: Here’s How You Can Take Advantage

The HARP Refinance Program Has Been Extended into 2016: Here's How You Can Take AdvantageWith the Home Affordable Refinancing Program recently being extended until the last day of December, 2016, many homeowners who have found their assets in a challenging situation have been given a second chance to apply and receive an affordable mortgage.

By taking advantage of the HARP program, eligible borrowers can refinance to the current mortgage rates on their homes while avoiding paying for private mortgage insurance or putting down the principal.

A Quick Primer On The HARP Refinancing Program

With the economy in a strong downturn in 2008, the value of millions of American homes plunged and the owners found themselves owning property with negative equity.

The Home Affordable Refinancing Program was created by the government to assist people whose home values were lower than the outstanding balance on their mortgages. Previously it would have been impossible to refinance for a better interest rate on the current value of the home, so HARP was designed to help any of these borrowers stay above water.

Who Is Eligible For HARP Refinancing?

There is a certain set of criteria that needs to be met in order to qualify for the HARP refinancing program, but two major points stand out: The mortgage must have been granted earlier than May 31, 2009 and it must have been granted by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

It is important to point out that many banks do not back their own mortgages and work as a servicer, a middle-man to collect the mortgage that is actually backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Many borrowers believe they do not qualify without double checking with their lender to see if the mortgage was granted by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, so it is imperative to contact the lender or check online to see who granted the mortgage.

There are also several disqualifiers that should be known. With certain exceptions, many borrowers who have previously refinanced their home under the HARP program are ineligible. The other major factor is that homes must have a loan-to-value ratio of 80% or higher.

What Is The Next Step For Eligible Borrowers?

The next step for anybody eligible for the HARP refinancing program is to check the current rates and see if refinancing would be beneficial. Your local mortgage professional will have experience with the HARP application process and will be able to confirm today’s rates to see if applying is the right move.