Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic news included Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, pending home sales and inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were released along with a reading on consumer sentiment. Case-Shiller and pending home sales readings suggested that recent rapid growth in home prices and home sales may be easing. High demand for homes coupled with low inventories of homes for sale has created an artificially high rate of home price growth and competition among buyers for a limited number of homes.

Home Price Growth Rate, Pending Home Sales Slow

Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for April showed lower home price growth than in March. April’s 20-City Home Price Index slipped from a seasonally-adjusted year-over-year rate of 5.60 percent to 5.50 percent. Analysts noted that high home prices and a limited inventory of homes on the market have sidelined some buyers.

According to the Commerce Department, pending home sales remained in negative territory in May with a reading of -0.80 percent as compared to April’s reading of -0.90 percent. While this is an improvement, home sales typically pick up during spring and summer months; a negative reading in pending home sales suggests that would-be buyers are waiting for home prices to ease and for more homes to become available.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported 30-year mortgage rates were two basis points lower at an average of 3.88 percent, while the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged at 3.17 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose three basis points to 3.17 percent. Discount points were unchanged at an average of 0.50 percent for all mortgage types.

First-time unemployment claims were higher last week at 244,000; analysts estimated a reading of 243,0000 new claims based on the prior week’s reading of 242,000 new claims.

Consumer spending declined by 0.30 percent to 0.10 percent in May, which matched analyst’s expectations. Core consumer spending met expectations and held steady in May with a reading of 0.10 percent growth. Consumer sentiment rose in June to an index reading of 95.10 as compared to expectations of 94.50, which matched April’s reading of 94.50

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic news releases include readings on construction spending, ADP and Non-Farm payrolls and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included readings on sales of new and previously owned homes. Despite expectations of lower sales in both categories, sales surpassed expectations and April sales. Analysts were concerned about extremely tight inventories of available homes limiting home sales and did not expect May home sales to increase.

May Home Sales Surpass Expectations

Sales of new homes increased to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 610,000 sales as compared to expectations of 590,000 sales and an annual sales pace of 593,000 homes in April. Home builders have repeatedly cited a lack of buildable lots and skilled labor, but growth in new home sales could prompt more housing starts. Real estate industry pros insist that building more homes is the only way to ease tight inventories and high demand for homes.

Existing Home Sales, National Median Home Price Rise

Sales of previously-owned homes also increased in May according to the Commerce Department. Pre-owned homes were sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 5.62 million sales as compared to expectations of 5.51 million sales and April’s reading of 5.57 million sales. The National Association of Realtors® said that the current sales pace is “unsustainable” and that “would-be buyers are having to delay or postpone their home search due to short supplies of homes for sale.” The national median home price rose 5.80 percent to $252,800 year-over-year.

Regional readings for existing home sales were mixed. Sales of existing homes were 6.88 percent higher in the Northeast while the Midwest was -5.90 percent. Existing home sales increased by 2.20 percent in the South and 3.40 percent in the West.

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported slightly lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for all three mortgage types: The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.90 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.17 percent and rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 3.14 percent. Discount points were unchanged at 0.50 percent across the board.

New jobless claims reported week rose to 241,000 and exceeded expectations of 240,000 new claims based on the prior week’s reading of 238,000 new claims. Week-to-week fluctuations can be volatile; the four-month rolling average of new jobless claims rose by 1,00 claims to 244,750 new jobless claims filed. New claims have remained below the benchmark reading of 300,000 new claims for 120 weeks, which is the longest consecutive run since the 1970s.

Analysts said that while job markets remain strong, employers continue to have difficulty in finding skilled candidates for jobs offered.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic news releases include Case-Schiller Housing Market Index reports, pending home sales and inflation. Mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.